Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick went even further, stating that this new initiative would replace the EB-5 Immigrant Investor Program, which currently allows foreign investors to obtain Green Cards by investing in job-creating enterprises. This raises critical concerns for current and prospective EB-5 investors, as well as for the future of investment-based immigration in the U.S.
Is the End of EB-5 Imminent?
While Trump and Lutnick have suggested that the “gold card” would supplant EB-5, there are significant legal and procedural hurdles to such a move. The EB-5 program is codified in U.S. law and has undergone multiple legislative reforms, most recently with the EB-5 Reform and Integrity Act of 2022 (RIA). Eliminating or replacing EB-5 would likely require congressional approval, despite Trump’s claim that the new program does not require legislative action.
Moreover, the EB-5 program serves a distinct function—directing foreign capital to job-creating enterprises in the U.S. economy. The gold card, as proposed, appears to focus on passive wealth accumulation rather than structured economic development. Without clear guidelines on investment deployment, it remains uncertain whether the proposed replacement would meet similar economic impact criteria.
What Happens to Existing EB-5 Investors?
One of the most pressing concerns is the status of those who have already invested through EB-5. According to USCIS data, the number of applications pending review as of the end of September 2024 was 9,971 I-526(E) petitions. These investors have made substantial financial commitments based on an established legal framework. Furthermore, the EB-5 Regional Center Program, under current law, remains authorized until September 30, 2027.
If the EB-5 program were abruptly terminated, questions would arise regarding grandfathering provisions. Most likely, investors who have already begun the process would be allowed to complete it under such provisions. However, the lack of legislative clarity surrounding the “gold card” proposal makes it uncertain whether any guarantees exist.
Impact on Future Investors
For prospective EB-5 investors, uncertainty around the program’s future could have a chilling effect on new investments. Many investors conduct thorough due diligence before committing capital, and the potential for regulatory upheaval could deter participation.
Additionally, the $5 million price tag of the gold card far exceeds the minimum investment thresholds currently required under EB-5 ($800,000 for projects in Targeted Employment Areas and $1.05 million for other areas). This dramatic increase may make the new program accessible only to ultra-high-net-worth individuals, significantly reducing its pool of potential applicants.
According to USCIS data, by the end of September 2024, 12 055 EB-5 visas had been issued in the U.S. Consulates and this is not the final number of EB-5 visas issued for the past fiscal year, although it is already a record number of visas issued in the history of the EB-5 program.
Legal and Political Challenges Ahead
Trump’s proposal is likely to face legal challenges, both in terms of executive authority and immigration policy consistency. Immigration programs are historically subject to congressional oversight, and any attempt to unilaterally dismantle EB-5 could prompt lawsuits from stakeholders, including existing investors, regional centers, and industry groups.
Moreover, any attempt to replace EB-5 with a high-cost alternative could face resistance from both political parties, particularly those representing business interests that benefit from the program’s job-creation incentives.
Conclusion: A Risky Future for EB-5?
Trump’s announcement has introduced significant uncertainty into the investment immigration landscape. While the gold card proposal raises important questions about the evolution of investor visa programs, the EB-5 program’s legal entrenchment and economic contributions make an abrupt cancellation unlikely. Current and prospective investors should closely monitor legislative developments and consult legal experts to assess their options in this shifting landscape.
For now, the best course of action for EB-5 stakeholders is to remain informed and prepared for potential regulatory shifts.
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